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Greetings all, I have been a long time lurker (since 2010) on the forums and have finally decided to take the plunge into posting something. For my first post I wanted to get some input from the Forums on a question I had about Must Hit By Progressives. I am the furthest thing from an AP. I like to visit my local casino once a month and plunk away at the slots and maybe play a little Video Poker to switch things up. With that being said, my local casino has some of the Ainsworth Must Hit By Progressive machines (Thunder Cash, Mustang Money, etc.) in the high limit room at the $1 level (Major starts at $9,000 and will hit by $10,000, Minor Starts at $350 and will hit by $500). I have reviewed the great write-up that the Wizard has on calculating the Target Point for when the Major and Minor Progressives would put the machine in +EV territory. As I said I am the furthest thing from an AP but if in my monthly visit to the Casino I happen to spot one of these machines where the progressive makes it +EV why not throw my money into that.
So here is my question - how do you calculate the bankroll required to have a reasonable chance of hitting the progressive (Major or Minor)? I would like to understand the bankroll necessary to withstand the variance you could experience on these machines while chasing the progressive. It will not change my play but it would be good to understand how to calculate this. As a corollary to this question, if you are chasing one of these progressives what is the best bet level to play at (the machines I reference above have a bet range from $10 - $100 a spin)? My gut tells me the $10 per spin level gives you the best chance to survive the possible variance you would encounter. Staad pro steel design examples pdf portfolio.
I seem to remember a thread from last year that discussed the bankroll calculation issue but I have not been able to track it down. Thanks in advance for responses! Bankroll will depend heavily on (1) your starting point (2) machine settings (Ainsworth $5K/10K machines in the wild have been reported at 85-97%), (3) meter movements, (4) different themes have different variances (and wildly different bonus round variances) (5) whether you play 1-2-3-5-10-15-20 lines (6) whether or not your casino closes overnight.so you might lose the machine when it reopens on the next day Typical meter movements are $667 & $250 to move $1 (Some newer ones have $667 & $222).